The failure of the financial bailout bill in the House is a classic example of an old adage: all politics is local.
Despite the fact that President George W. Bush and the leadership of both parties lined up behind the bill, the rank and file of both parties -- particularly on the Republican side -- rebelled in light of polling that showed the American public is deeply skeptical about a planned $700 billion bailout for the financial industry.
With just over one month left before the November election, politicians of both partisan stripes are concerned primarily about one thing: their own political futures.
And, even a cursory glance at polling on the issue, shows why so many politicians voted against the bill.
In a recent USA Today/Gallup, just 22 percent of the sample said they wanted Congress to "pass a plan similar to what the Bush Administration has proposed" while 56 percent wanted Congress to pass something "different" (although what that different plan would be was not made clear) and 11 percent wanted Congress to take no action at all.
The results were slightly more mixed in a New York Times/CBS News poll where 42 percent said they approved of the government's financial rescue plan while 46 disapproved, and in the Post/ABC poll where 44 percent expressed approval for the plan and 42 percent disapproved.
The data suggest that this bill was far from a political winner for members of Congress set to face voters in 36 days.
And, for vulnerable Republicans who believe that the free-spending attitude of Congress and the Bush Administration was either partially or primarily responsible for their ouster from majorities in the House and the Senate in 2006, the idea of floating the federal government another $700 billion was simply unpalatable.
It's no coincidence then that of the 205 Members who voted in support of the bill today, there are only two -- Reps. Chris Shays (R-Conn.) and Jon Porter (R-Nev.) -- who find themselves in difficult reelection races this fall. The list of the 228 "nays" reads like a virtual target list for the two parties.
While it's clear that the main reason the bill failed was the provincial concerns of more than 220 Members, the blame game is already well under way at the presidential level. John McCain had staked much last week on his high-profile decision to suspend his campaign to return to Washington to try and help bring about a deal on the bailout.
When a deal wasn't reached in short order, McCain scrapped his plans to postpone the first presidential debate in Mississippi on Friday night. But, he did return to Washington shortly afterward to return to work on turning the bailout bill into a reality.
By this morning, McCain seemed to believe that a deal was done and even seemed to claim some credit for making it so. "I went to Washington last week to make sure that the taxpayers of Ohio and across this great country were not left footing the bill for mistakes made on Wall Street and evil and greed in Washington," McCain said at a campaign rally in Columbus, Ohio.
In an appearance this evening in Des Moines, McCain put out a bipartisan call to pick up the pieces and get something passed. "I would hope that all our leaders -- all of them -- can put aside short-term political goals and focus on what's best for the American people," said McCain. He added that Obama and his allies in Congress had "infused unnecessary partisanship" into the vote and the bailout.
And on a conference call immediately following McCain's remarks, senior policy adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin sought to play up the Arizona Senator's willingness to step into the arena -- regardless of the political consequences -- to work out a solution.
"He did his job knowing it was important for him to be pushing a process," said Holtz-Eakin.
Holtz-Eakin added that McCain had made "dozens" of calls to legislators in advance of today's vote, and claimed that the Arizona Senator "took the lead" in pushing for taxpayer protections and executive compensation measures that were in the bill. McCain did much to "improve the character of this legislation for what was once a $700 billion blank check," said Holtz-Eakin.
Barack Obama has adopted a slightly more hands-off approach to the issue, returning to Washington late last week at the request of President Bush to join in a high-profile meeting at the White House but largely stayed out of the nitty gritty of the negotiations.
Obama's campaign privately pronounced themselves very pleased with the way last week played out -- insisting that McCain had appeared "erratic" during a crisis while Obama had been calm, sober and serious.
In a statement released late Monday from his campaign, Obama spokesman Bill Burton derided McCain's attempts to use the ongoing financial crisis for political gain and quickly pivoted to focus on the Illinois Senator's outsider credentials.
"This is a moment of national crisis, and today's inaction in Congress as well as the angry and hyper-partisan statement released by the McCain campaign are exactly why the American people are disgusted with Washington," said Burton. "Now is the time for Democrats and Republicans to join together and act in a way that prevents an economic catastrophe."
To date, the focus on the economy seems to have accrued to Obama and the Democrats' benefit.
The latest Gallup tracking poll puts Obama ahead of McCain by eight points -- 50 percent to 42 percent. It was the second consecutive tracking poll that showed Obama with a statistically significant lead and the fourth straight track that showed Obama maintaining or widening his lead since the survey showed the two candidates locked in a 46 percent to 46 percent tie early last week.
With the bailout bill almost certain to remain in the news for the remainder of this week (and perhaps far longer), McCain and the Republican Party must find a way to turn around their negative trend line on the issue.